Ski Season is Coming!
Welcome to Ascent Guides new Fraser Valley Backcountry Conditions report! Right now, I'm sitting at Land Cafe looking up the Chilliwack River Valley at a fresh dusting of snow on the peaks. To our west, I'm already hearing reports of some early season turns on the glaciers near Mt. Baker and accumulations of 20-60 cm of accumulation up high in the Cascade Mountains.
In other words, ski season is almost here and we are excited. That's why we're launching this report a couple weeks ahead of schedule.
The idea is to provide useful information for winter backcountry recreation in the Fraser Valley. We'll talk about conditions, avalanche problems and what we're thinking about for both our personal trips and the avalanche and backcountry skills programs we'll be running all winter. We're also hoping to have guest posts and useful information coming in from the community. Basically, we want to help you – the reader – have the most fun and safe winter that you can. The plan is that, starting in December, we'll release a weekly report for the whole winter.
In the meantime though, we wanted to take a look at what we're thinking about for the season ahead. Let's dive in.
2024-25 Winter Season Outlook
We've had a couple of rough snow years all across Southwestern BC. Last season's snowpack was well below average. We had long snow droughts, warm and wet storms and, altogether, a season I would charitably call challenging. So what's on deck for this year?
My hope – and what meteorologists are predicting – is that we're coming out of last winter's El Niño and moving into a La Niña. I'll be honest, I'm not a meteorologist and my understanding of these phenomena is pretty basic, but essentially El Niño is a where above average ocean temperatures near the equator drives weather patterns that lead to lower snowpacks where we live. La Niña is the opposite, where colder ocean temperatures drive weather patterns that, historically, have been associated with normal or above average snowfall. There are also variations within these patterns with both strong, average and weak El Niño and La Niña cycles, all of which bring some variation to our winter weather.
Thankfully, some experts have tried to parse what all this means for our region. According a blog from the Northwest Avalanche Center (NWAC), snow totals at Mt. Baker in La Niña years range from average to 118% of average, depending on the strength of the La Niña effect. Similar patterns exist all along the Cascade Mountains in Washington State.
Alan Smith, a meteorologist writing for OpenSnow.com posited that "La Niña conditions are growing and are favoured to emerge during the late fall". His research pointed to forecasts of a weak La Niña this season, comparing this year to the 2016-17 season. In that year, the Lower Fraser Region has a snowpack 123% of average, the South Coast 115% of average and the Skagit at 111%.
Smith did have a note of caution though, stating that overall, historical weak La Niña years in BC have had lower than average snow totals. But, "temperatures tend to be colder than normal during weak La Niña years, possibly resulting in lower average snow levels and better quality snow compared to other years."
Obviously, at the end of the day, this is all based on long rage forecasting and modelling compared to previous years. We all know that long range snow forecasts are fickle at best, and with the variability in our annual snowpack from climate change, it's hard to predict winter weather with any level of confidence these days.
But, after a couple years of below average winters, I'm hopeful that we're headed for an amazing season. In the coming weeks I'll share some more about early season touring and preparations for your first days out. In the meantime, if you do head out in search of snow, check out this blog from Avalanche Canada first, it has some great reminders about early season snow and touring.
If you liked reading this, don't forget to subscribe to receive future editions in your email every week!
P.S. Ascent Guides has a full calendar of avalanche courses this winter, with out first ones starting in mid-December. You can find dates for AST-1, AST-2, refreshers and companion rescue courses up here.
